1. Price is the most sensitive factor in the increase of Mini LED TV penetration rate, and Mini LED TV is on the eve of mass production
The driving force for the increase in Mini LED TV penetration rate comes from two reasons
1) In the context of replacement demand becoming the main component of TV sales in my country, consumers will most likely maintain or even improve their pursuit of display effects after experiencing better picture quality and viewing experience.
2) Both the supply chain and the terminal have shown the willingness to promote Mini LED TV products to the volume price range, which may drive this upgrade from the supply side.
2. Calculation logic of Mini LED TV penetration rate to price sensitivity
Consumers of Mini LED TVs of different sizes have different price sensitivities. In recent years, global TV shipments have basically remained stable at around 200 million units. We calculate the penetration rate of Mini TVs based on the global TV panel shipments of various sizes. In terms of price, we compare the price reduction in the Chinese market with the cost reduction of Mini LED TVs worldwide. We take the average price of 22Q3 and 23Q3 as an example to calculate the average price reduction of Mini LED TVs of various sizes from 22 to 23. Combined with the increase in penetration rate during the period, we get the price sensitivity coefficients of 55, 65, and 75+ sizes.
3. Mini LED TV sales forecast
Based on the cost reduction calculation of Mini backlight module and whole machine cost, under the trend of scale effect and solution maturity improvement, assuming that the price of Mini LED panel (open cell) drops slightly by 10% in the same direction, it is calculated that the price of Mini LED TV terminal may have a 24.8% drop, and the corresponding 55, 65, 75+ penetration rates are expected to rise to 5.4%, 9.1%, and 18.1%. my country's TV sales are still in the process of bottoming out. For prudent considerations, even under the neutral and pessimistic assumption, my country's TV sales have dropped to 32 million units, and the corresponding total sales of Mini TVs are still expected to reach 2.76 million units, which is more than twice the growth space compared to the shipment volume in 2023.
4. The market size of Mini LED TV backlight modules is expected to reach 7.8 billion, 10.1 billion, and 12.6 billion yuan in 2025-2027
Assuming that the penetration rate of Mini TVs in 2026 and 2027 grows in the same direction and magnitude, the global penetration rate of Mini LED TVs will reach 8.6%, 11.9%, and 15.2% in 2025, 2026, and 2027. Based on the average price assumption of the ex-factory price of the 65-inch product with the largest shipment volume, if the cost in 2026 and 2027 is reduced by 5% and 2% respectively due to the scale effect, the corresponding market size of Mini LED TVs is expected to reach 36.6 billion, 48.1 billion, and 60.2 billion yuan, of which the market size of backlight modules is expected to reach 7.7 billion, 10.1 billion, and 12.6 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 28.3% during 2025-2027.
5. Market Forecast
Mini LED technology has strong adaptability in TV scenes and is expected to become the preferred solution for upgrading TV display technology. Driven by my country's terminal manufacturers and upstream industry chains, Mini TV shipments have more than doubled. Considering that there is still room for full exploration of the cost reduction potential of the Mini industry chain, and against the background of my country's TV shipments constantly grinding to the bottom, terminal manufacturers also have a strong willingness to use the Mini LED concept to "promote new products and sell them at high prices", which is expected to jointly drive the Mini LED TV industry chain to continue to be highly prosperous.
