Competition pattern of lithium battery industry
In the global market share, the concentration of downstream lithium battery industry is higher than that of upstream material link. The CR2 of global power storage battery exceeds 50%, and CR4 is close to 70%, which belongs to a highly oligopolistic market structure (CR8>80%). This market structure is very conducive to the lithium battery link to occupy a dominant position in the value chain distribution. At the same time, the lithium battery leader can also fully obtain the technical dividends and terminal market profits of the industry chain. Among the main lithium battery material links, the lithium iron phosphate positive electrode link is accelerating the optimization of the competition pattern, and the leading enterprises have obtained more than one-third of the market share; the electrolyte and diaphragm links are also expected to achieve a stable competition pattern as soon as possible.
From the perspective of corporate operating costs, per capita labor efficiency and per capita revenue generation, the main links of lithium battery have opened up a clear gap, and the leading position is obvious. The unit period cost of leading enterprises is at a lower level. This feature is most fully reflected in the positive electrode, electrolyte and diaphragm links. The business structure of these links is concentrated, and it is also recognized that the industry is the first to be cleared. In addition, the leading enterprises obviously have a better revenue base, which provides a solid foundation for the implementation of the future vertical integration strategy and further optimization of the value chain’s profit distribution.
The power energy storage battery industry chain has entered the knockout stage
Whether it is the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles or the growth rhythm of energy storage installations, the demand has slowed down compared with the previous 2-3 years. Terminal car companies and energy storage integration companies have shown short-term wait-and-see behavior, and continue to put pressure on the midstream links on the price side. From the supply side, the upstream lithium carbonate, midstream materials, and battery production capacity have all expanded significantly, and the production capacity bottleneck no longer exists. Battery companies are relatively strict in production according to demand and control inventory levels with a cautious attitude. First-tier and second- and third-tier companies have differentiated in terms of capacity utilization and profitability. In addition, the external demand of the lithium battery industry chain faces significant challenges. The United States and the European Union continue to upgrade trade protection measures, and continue to put pressure on the domestic lithium battery industry chain through vehicle raw material traceability and trade tariffs. Looking to the future, leading companies with technological and scale advantages can continue to participate in the development of the European and American new energy vehicle and energy storage markets through overseas investment, technology licensing, etc., thereby accelerating the optimization of the competitive landscape of the lithium battery industry chain to a certain extent.
The characteristics of the lithium battery industry chain ensure that my country's industry dominance
First, the upstream and midstream material manufacturing links of lithium batteries belong to continuous process technology industries, with the following characteristics:
1) Lithium battery materials are mostly capital-intensive industries, emphasizing the integrity of production processes and the matching of equipment. Production equipment must be continuously refined, automated, integrated, and specialized. Therefore, enterprises need to maintain a high level of R&D investment, and the R&D system, resources, technical routes, and development strategies must match.
2) Lithium battery materials are also resource-based industries, highly dependent on the stable supply of upstream resources, and some links are also high-energy-consuming industries, so they emphasize the application of energy-saving and recycling technologies. In the future, competition in the materials industry will also move towards competition in the low-carbon dimension. At present, lithium battery materials are in a dominant position in the world, covering high, medium, and low different market segments, and actively deploying upstream mineral resources, and the value chain is more inclined to raw material suppliers.
Secondly, lithium batteries and some materials are highly modular industries.
Our country's lithium battery midstream industry chain has formed a technology-led competitive advantage, established an independent R&D system and product strategy, and actively deployed in the downstream energy storage integration, electric vehicles, and battery replacement networks, fully occupying the entire area of the value chain "smile curve". Enterprises are actively seeking to export technology and production capacity to open up an international development path; and integrating upstream resources and downstream terminal markets to consolidate the current leading position in the industry. The lithium battery industry will not lose its global industrial dominance as a result.
