1. Power battery capacity surges with new energy vehicle sales.
Benefiting from the rapid growth in sales of new energy passenger vehicles, the installed capacity of power batteries has skyrocketed from 34.1Gwh in 2019 to 322.9Gwh in 2023, an increase of nearly 9 times;
On the other hand, the installed capacity of single vehicles has also grown steadily, increasing to 44.5kwh in 2023. Among them, the installed capacity of BEV single vehicles has continued to rise in the past three years after a brief decline in 2020, reaching 53.5kwh in 2023;
The installed capacity of PHEV single vehicles has continued to rise, reaching 17.3kwh in 2023; the growth rate of the installed capacity of extended-range single vehicles has slowed down, and has remained at around 38kwh in the past four years.
2. Capacity recovers in H2 as new energy vehicle market rises.
The monthly trend of power battery installed capacity closely follows the changes in the downstream new energy vehicle market. Although there are fluctuations, it is generally on the rise. Specific analysis: Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival, the installed capacity performed poorly in the first quarter, slowly recovered in the second quarter, and as the market conditions warmed up in the second half of the year, the installed capacity grew steadily, with a month-on-month increase of 47.5%.
3. Battery type
The share of lithium iron phosphate batteries continues to rise, surpassing ternary lithium batteries for two consecutive years
In recent years, the ternary lithium battery market, which occupies a dominant position in the industry, has gradually shrunk and has been surpassed by lithium iron phosphate batteries for two consecutive years. The share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased from 5.9% in 2019 to 61.8% in 2023 due to its cost and safety advantages.
From the perspective of fuel type distribution, in the BEV market, the gap between lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries has gradually widened, and lithium iron phosphate batteries have exceeded 60% in 2023; in the PHEV market, lithium iron phosphate batteries have an obvious advantage, and the market share in 2023 will be nearly 80%; in the extended-range market, ternary lithium batteries occupy a mainstream position, with a market share of more than 80%, but the share has been declining in the past two years.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries shine in the market segments, but high-end cars are still dominated by ternary lithium batteries
Compared with ternary lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries are superior in terms of stability, safety, cost, etc. In recent years, with the development of lithium iron phosphate battery technology, the energy density has also been continuously improved. OEMs have begun to install lithium iron phosphate batteries. In the micro, compact and medium-sized markets, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries will increase in 2023, of which the micro-sized market has accounted for more than 90%.
On the other hand, in the medium-sized and above market segments, "high-performance, high-range mileage" products are more in line with market demand positioning. Therefore, the current high-end car battery is still mainly equipped with ternary lithium batteries, and this proportion continues to grow, with a market share of 74.1% in 2023.
4. Battery energy density
Thanks to the growth of ideal sales, the share of batteries ≥160Wh/kg has increased significantly
Compared with the data from 2019 to 2023, the distribution of battery energy density structure shows a trend of "two-end growth": the share of batteries below 125Wh/kg and 160Wh/kg and above has steadily increased, while the share of 140-160Wh/kg has continued to decline.
The BEV market 125-160Wh/kg is in the mainstream position. After a brief decline in share in 2021, it has remained at around 70% for two consecutive years; low-density batteries within 125Wh/kg in the PHEV market have an absolute advantage, with a market share of over 80%; thanks to the substantial growth in sales of Ideal L7/8/9 in the downstream market, the share of 160Wh/kg and above in the REEV market has increased significantly to 63.8%.
Ternary lithium is mainly concentrated in high energy density, with more than 160Wh/kg accounting for more than 50%
Lithium iron phosphate batteries are mainly concentrated in the low energy density range, with a market share of nearly 80% below 140Wh/kg, but the share of 140-160Wh/kg has continued to grow in recent years.
Ternary lithium batteries are mainly concentrated in the high energy density range, with a steady increase in the share above 160Wh/kg, from 6.4% in 2019 to 53.2% in 2023, and low energy density batteries are gradually shrinking,The share below 140Wh/kg fell from 49.9% in 2019 to 18.9% in 2023.
The micro-sized market is turning to low energy, while medium and large and above are biased towards high energy density
With short cruising range, low energy density batteries have basically met the needs of micro-sized cars. The current energy density is mainly concentrated within 125Wh/kg, accounting for 45%, and the share continues to rise.
Compact market segment: Energy density distribution is relatively uniform, with a 5.7% increase in the share of 125-140Wh/kg and a decrease in the share of 140Wh/kg and above.
Medium-sized market: Due to the surge in sales of downstream hot models such as Tang DM-i, Deep Blue SL03 EREV, and Deep Blue S7 EREV, the share of less than 125Wh/kg increased significantly by 9.9%.
Medium and large and above: The sales growth of downstream hot-selling Ideal L7/L8/L9 has led to a 22% increase in the share of more than 160Wh/kg.
5. Battery manufacturers
The industry's head effect is significant, and the market share of the TOP3 manufacturers exceeds 70%.
The head effect of the battery industry is significant, and the market share of the TOP3 manufacturers exceeds 70%. With the increase in BYD's sales in the vehicle market, CATL's share has gradually been eroded, and its market share in 2023 will decline by 1.4% year-on-year,while BYD's share will increase by 2.6%.
Due to the reduction in purchases from downstream customers such as Wuling, Chery, JAC Volkswagen, and Changan, Guoxuan High-tech's installed capacity fell by 4.8% year-on-year in an overall upward market environment.
The proportion of lithium iron phosphate supply has generally increased, and Zhongxinhang's lithium iron phosphate installed capacity has surpassed ternary lithium
Comparing the changes in product structure distribution, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery supply from mainstream battery manufacturers has generally increased, and the structural distribution of Zhongxinhang, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinwanda has reversed. In 2023, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased significantly, among which Zhongxinhang's lithium iron phosphate battery installed capacity has surpassed ternary lithium for the first time;
BYD, Guoxuan High-tech, Times GAC and others have deeply cultivated the lithium iron phosphate technology route, among which BYD and Times GAC lithium iron phosphate batteries account for nearly 100%; on the contrary, the supply of ternary lithium batteries from Times SAIC and LG Chem still occupies the mainstream.
Although the number of BYD customers continues to grow, it is still mainly domestic sales, and the proportion of exports is less than 5%. As the industry leader, CATL has many customers, and the proportion of customer structure tends to be dispersed. In 2023, the number of customers will increase to 61, and the top three customers Tesla China, Ideal Auto, and Geely Auto will have a share of 25.3%, 11.3%, and 10.9%, respectively, of which Ideal's share will increase by 5.1%; Although the number of BYD customers continues to grow, reaching 17 in 2023, it is still mainly internal supply, and the proportion of exports is less than 5%; Compared with competitors, Zhongxinhang's single customer ratio is relatively high, and the top three customers account for 80% of the installed capacity, of which the largest customer GAC Aion contributes 48% of its installed capacity, and Xiaopeng Motors' share continues to rise. : Affected by the shrinking micro-small market, the proportion of Wuling and Chery New Energy in Guoxuan High-tech has declined. Affected by the decline in sales of Hongguang MINI EV and Little Ant, the proportion of SAIC-GM-Wuling and Chery New Energy in Guoxuan High-tech has declined by 3.7% and 4.3% respectively. At the same time, the proportion of Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motor has increased significantly; Times SAIC's customers are mainly subsidiaries of SAIC Group, and the number is relatively stable. Among them, SAIC-GM and Zhiji have increased by 12.5% and 17.7% respectively.
6. OEMs
BYD ranks first, with installed capacity exceeding the total of Tesla China, Aion, and Geely. BYD ranks first, with an installed capacity of 87.4Gwh in 2023, exceeding the total of Tesla China, GAC Aion, and Geely. Its share increased by 1.2% year-on-year, but the installed capacity per vehicle is relatively low;
The installed capacity of Ideal Auto and BMW Brilliance increased by more than 100% year-on-year, among which the installed capacity of BMW Brilliance per vehicle increased by 20.3% year-on-year to 71.5KWh; Tesla China, NIO, and Xpeng Motors underperformed the base, and their shares all showed different degrees of decline year-on-year, but the installed capacity per vehicle was higher than other brands.
OEMs generally increased the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and Aion increased by 23.1% year-on-year.
Comparing the distribution of battery types of OEMs, mainstream manufacturers generally increased the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries. BYD has basically equipped lithium iron phosphate batteries, and GAC Aion, Geely Automobile and other lithium iron phosphate batteries have increased by 20%.
NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Brilliance BMW still mainly use ternary lithium batteries, among which NIO and Brilliance BMW ternary lithium batteries account for 100%, but in recent years, Xpeng has gradually increased the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which has increased from 16 in 2021. .3% to 38.2% in 2023
Ideal Auto has added two new suppliers, Honeycomb Energy and Xinwanda, but the purchase ratio is less than 20%
Compared with other OEMs, Tesla's supply channels in China are relatively single. Currently, it only purchases from CATL and LG Chem. CATL's share will decline slightly in 2023;
GAC Aion's supplier structure has been adjusted again, reducing its purchase share from its joint venture subsidiary, Times GAC. In 2023, Times GAC's share will decline by 15.2% year-on-year, while Yiwei Lithium Energy will rise by 12.8%;
