I. Overall Scale: Slower Growth but a Record - High Total Volume
1. Divergent Forecasts for Total Export Volume
According to the prediction of Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the China Passenger Car Association, the export volume of Chinese automobiles is expected to reach 7 million units in 2025, with a year - on - year growth of approximately 10% (based on 6.41 million units in 2024). Among them, the export of fuel - powered vehicles is expected to grow by 9%, plug - in hybrid vehicles by 70%, while pure electric vehicles may face zero growth due to resistance in the European and American markets.
However, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) is more cautious in its prediction, expecting the export volume to be 6.2 million units in 2025, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 5.8%. This difference reflects different judgments on tariff pressures and market saturation.
2. Transformation of Growth Drivers
In the past four years (2021 - 2024), China's automobile exports achieved a "triple - jump" with an average annual growth rate of over 20%. In 2024, the export volume exceeded 6 million units for the first time, making China the world's largest automobile exporter. However, it is widely recognized that the growth rate will slow down in 2025. The main reasons include the additional tariffs imposed by the European Union, the adjustment of Russia's import tax rate (from 20% to 38%), and political pressure in the Mexican market.
II. Structural Changes: Dominance of Fuel - Powered Vehicles and Differentiation in New Energy Vehicles
1. Fuel - Powered Vehicles Remain the Mainstay of Exports
In 2024, fuel - powered vehicles accounted for nearly 80% of the total export volume, with an average price of about 100,000 yuan. They were mainly sold to developing markets such as Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East. Brands like Chery dominated the market with their cost - performance advantages. In 2025, fuel - powered vehicles are expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down to single digits. Some automakers will consolidate their market positions through technological upgrades, such as developing low - fuel - consumption engines.
2. The Export Pattern of New Energy Vehicles is "Strong in Plug - in Hybrids, Weak in Pure Electric Vehicles"
Growth of Plug - in Hybrid Vehicles Against the Trend: Due to the insufficient overseas charging infrastructure, plug - in hybrid vehicles (including extended - range models) have become a breakthrough for automakers to deal with European and American tariffs, thanks to their long - range capabilities and price advantages. For example, after SAIC MG launched hybrid models in Europe, its sales volume exceeded 240,000 units in 2024.
Barriers Faced by Pure Electric Vehicles: The EU's anti - subsidy tax (up to 38.1%) has led to a decline in the export of Chinese pure electric vehicles. In 2024, the export volume decreased by 10.4% year - on - year, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in 2025.
III. Regional Markets: Rise of Emerging Markets and Breakthroughs in Mature Markets
1. Sustained Growth in Developing Markets
Regions such as Russia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia remain the core markets for Chinese automakers. Take Chery as an example. In 2024, its sales volume in Russia and Brazil accounted for more than 30% of the total, mainly featuring 100,000 - yuan - level fuel - powered vehicles. The Middle East has become a new growth point due to its young population and strong purchasing power.
2. Difficult Breakthroughs in European and American Markets
The European Union and North American markets have high entry barriers, but Chinese automakers are seeking breakthroughs through local production and technological cooperation. For example, BYD is building factories in Hungary and Turkey and plans to start production in 2025; Geely is penetrating the European market through the Volvo channel. In addition, Australia has become a testing ground due to its zero - tariff policy, and MG has ranked among the top ten best - selling brands in Australia for four consecutive years.
IV. Core Challenges: Tariff Barriers and Globalization Capabilities
1. Escalation of Tariffs and Trade Frictions
The EU's anti - subsidy tax, the increase in Russia's import tax rate, and the pressure from the United States on Mexico to restrict Chinese automakers' investment directly compress the export profit margin. For example, the EU's temporary tariff on Chinese pure electric vehicles has led brands such as SAIC and BYD to adjust their strategies and shift to the export of hybrid vehicles.
2. From "Product Going Global" to "Full - Value - Chain Going Global"
Relying solely on vehicle exports is not sustainable. Automakers need to accelerate the localization of the industrial chain. BYD's factories in Thailand and Uzbekistan have started production, and it plans to expand to Brazil and Hungary. Component companies such as Minth Group and Joyson Electronics are also building factories in Mexico simultaneously, forming a "going - global - together" effect. This model can reduce the impact of tariffs and enhance brand recognition.
V. Future Outlook: Technological Advantages and Long - Term Strategies
1. Dual - Wheel Drive of Cost and Technology
Chinese automakers continue to enhance their international competitiveness with low - cost manufacturing (for example, the cost of BYD Seal is 35% lower than that of its European competitors) and intelligent technology (high - speed NOA assisted driving is being popularized in 100,000 - 200,000 - yuan models). UBS predicts that the global market share of Chinese automakers will increase from 17% to 33% by 2030.
2. Divergent Paths for Brand Globalization
Learning from the experience of Toyota, Chinese automakers need to choose a path suitable for themselves:
Penetrating the High - End Market: Brands like NIO and Li Auto are entering the high - end European and American markets with intelligent configurations.
Deepening in Emerging Markets: Chery and Great Wall continue to consolidate their advantages in developing markets.
Exporting Hybrid Technology: BYD and Geely are using plug - in hybrid technology to open up regions with weak charging infrastructure.
Conclusion
In 2025, China's automobile exports will move towards "high - quality going - global" with a slowdown in growth. Despite facing tariff and market competition pressures, through technological upgrades, local layout, and full - value - chain integration, Chinese automakers are expected to achieve a transformation from "quantity" to "quality" in the global market. Future competition is not only about products but also about the coordination of the industrial chain and brand globalization capabilities.
