Is AI “Killing” E-Commerce? Big Data Reveals the Truth Behind “Rational Shopping”

When 618 promotion pop-ups can no longer easily make consumers’ hearts race, when the slogan of “lowest price online” is gradually replaced by promises of “direct price cuts for quality,” the e-commerce industry of 2025 is undergoing a quiet yet profound transformation—from scale-chasing to value reconstruction.

This shift is hidden behind simplified platform rules, embedded in brand strategy adjustments, and most clearly imprinted in the consumer journey, where decisions move from “calculating discounts” to “choosing quality.”

1. Market Landscape: Stable Scale, Clear Channel and Category Divergence

The domestic promotional market remains generally stable: in 2025, the total Gross Sales Value (GSV) during promotional months reached 787.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.2%. However, channel differences are stark: Tmall and JD.com saw sales decline, while Douyin E-Commerce grew against the trend with 237.732 billion yuan, driven by its “short video + livestreaming” model. This model fueled explosive growth in trendy toys & anime (+57%) and personal care tools (+21%).

Category performance showed “three-tier polarization”:Rigid-demand categories such as grains, oils & fast food (+4%) and household cleaning & personal care (+5%) remained steady.Digital products (+11%) and home appliances (+6%) grew, supported by government subsidies; Tmall’s digital product sales reached 48.683 billion yuan, up 32.8% YoY.Large appliances (-8%) and home improvement & building materials (-17%) declined due to the sluggish real estate sector.

(Source:endata)

Globally, in 2024, B2C e-commerce sales reached $6.1 trillion and are expected to hit $6.7 trillion in 2025. China and the U.S. together account for more than 50% of the scale, while emerging markets like India and Indonesia stand out: India’s 2024 market reached $182 billion, growing 23.8% YoY; Indonesia is projected to hit $94.5 billion in 2025.

(Source:Fastdata)

2. Consumer Mindset: From “Price Chasing” to “Value-Oriented”

Consumers are shifting toward a comprehensive evaluation of cost-performance, quality, and experience. Douyin’s 2025 interactive word cloud shows “cost-performance” and “quality life” as the core terms, with increased mentions of smart locks and electric toothbrushes.Price segmentation has become more evident:High-price segments grew in home textiles & décor (+27.0%) and skincare (+10.6%).Subsidized categories saw growth across all price bands.Apparel accessories and auto parts declined across all price levels, with high-end auto parts dropping 18.0%.

Consumer groups also show fine segmentation:Women aged 31–40 are the main force in beauty, with Pechoin’s sales to this group exceeding 50%.Young professionals and small-town youth increased both consumption and price acceptance in edible oil.Gen Z relies heavily on content-driven decisions; Xiaohongshu and Tmall’s “Red Cat Program” boosted overseas orders of Guofeng-style (traditional Chinese) accessories.

(Source:endata)

3. Platform and Brand Strategies: Escaping the Low-Price Trap, Focusing on Value

Platforms are breaking the cycle of low-price competition through rule simplification, content integration, and AI efficiency:Tmall introduced “official price cuts starting at 15%,”JD.com promoted “200 minus 20 yuan super coupons,”Pinduoduo pushed “same product, same price,”all of which canceled complex tiered discounts.Collaborations like Tmall + Xiaohongshu’s “Red Cat Program” and Douyin’s “short video + live commerce” shorten decision chains. JD.com’s digital human livestreams improved conversion rates by 30%, while Alibaba’s Mama AI tools boosted click-through rates by 20%.

On the brand side, the strategy focuses on omnichannel layout and precision operations:Pechoin leveraged a “self-operated account matrix + Mr. Dong’s livestream” to surpass 100 million yuan in sales.Chando used its “Polar Yeast Ximo Factor” ingredient to achieve explosive sales via Li Jiaqi’s livestream.For edible oil, natural content significantly drove sales, with 2025’s 618 sales exceeding 450 million yuan, up 19.1% YoY.3C brands leaned on JD.com, trendy toys focused on Douyin, while agricultural products depended on Pinduoduo’s “Billion Yuan Farm Subsidy” (e.g., lychee sales increased sixfold).

(Source:Data Insider)

4. Tech Empowerment: AI and Instant Retail as Core Directions

AI is reshaping the entire chain:JD.com’s AI poster tool improved efficiency by 80%.Tmall’s “image-to-video” tool supports merchants.Virtual human livestreams are spreading, tested by both Li Jiaqi’s and Luo Yonghao’s teams.Visual search and AR try-on enhanced shopping experiences.Amazon’s recommendation engine already drives 35% of sales, and by 2027, 50% of platforms are expected to achieve full-chain AI enablement.Instant retail is also expanding:JD.com’s 618 saw 22 billion+ instant orders,Meituan’s digital instant sales rose 80%,“30-minute delivery” became the norm.However, AI penetration among small and medium merchants remains below 10%.

(Source:Hong Kong Qingbo Technology )

By 2025, the e-commerce battlefield no longer thrives on shouting “lowest price, free shipping for 9.9 yuan.” Consumers are becoming more selective, platforms more competitive, while technology quietly opens up new dimensions.At this point, still rushing traffic and chasing GMV? That’s outdated.The real competition is no longer about who shouts the loudest, but who understands life better: who can make users feel their spending is worth it, who can combine “affordable” and “quality,” and who can anticipate consumer needs before they even articulate them.In short: those who can balance saving money and saving effort, respond to instant wants while cultivating long-term trust, are the ones truly capable of mastering this marathon of refined operations.