Are Foldable Screens the Next Trend for Smartphones?

The iteration of foldable smartphones is accelerating, entering a stage of comprehensive competition.

This year, there has been a dense influx of new foldable smartphone releases, with many brands competing. Most products have been updated to the foldable 3.0 version, such as the OPPO Find N3, vivo X Fold 3, and Honor Magic V3. Additionally, there are several standout flip-style foldable models, such as the Magic V Flip, vivo X Flip, and OPPO Find N3 Flip.

In August, the 'triple-fold screen' dominated headlines! Richard Yu revealed the release date for Huawei's triple-fold smartphone, confirming its official debut this September. Beating Huawei to the punch, Transsion, the 'King of Africa,' showcased a triple-fold concept phone, the Tecno Phantom Ultimate 2. There are also reports that Xiaomi will launch a triple-fold smartphone.

The first foldable smartphone was released in 2018, and over 45 models have been launched to date. After more than five years, what are the new features of foldable phones? How is public acceptance? What potential tracks in the foldable screen sector are worth our attention? We have compiled over a dozen reports to discuss foldable screens in this article. 

01 Three New Features of Foldable Screens

In terms of form factor, foldable smartphones are divided into three types: horizontal outward fold, horizontal inward fold, and vertical inward fold. Different folding forms correspond to different product philosophies behind the manufacturers: horizontal folding follows the 'phone-to-tablet' approach, serving as a phone when folded and a tablet when unfolded for multi-purpose use; vertical folding is primarily for portability.

After multiple version iterations, what are the new features of this year's foldable smartphones?

1 Lighter and Thinner

The most common complaint about previous generations of foldable phones was that they were 'thick and heavy,' with 'form over function.'

In the second quarter of this year, models with a folded thickness of less than 12mm accounted for 70% of sales in China's foldable phone market, a year-on-year increase of 47%. Among them, the Honor Magic V2 RSR Porsche Design has achieved a folded thickness of 9.9mm.

Furthermore, according to Transsion, the new Tecno Phantom Ultimate 2 uses the latest TDDI technology, a solution that integrates touch and display drivers, making the device thinner and lighter. In its folded state, the new Transsion phone is only 11mm thick, compared to the Mate X5's 11.08mm.

For the same surface area, being thinner means less weight. After all, a light and thin grip experience has always been a key focus for foldable phone users.

From 2020 to the first half of 2024, the median weight of foldable phones in China dropped from 282g in 2020 to 204g in the first half of 2024, a 28% reduction, which is now lower than the weight of the iPhone 15 Pro Max. Of the 10 new foldable phones launched in the first half of the year, only two were heavier than the iPhone 15 Pro Max. The vivo X Fold 3, a large-screen foldable launched in March, achieved a weight of 219g, making it one of the lightest large-screen horizontal fold products, along with the Honor V Purse.

2 Larger Display

Currently, the inner screens of mainstream foldable phones on the market are close to a 1:1 ratio when unfolded. However, when we watch videos or play games, the screen is usually around 4:3 or 16:9, which makes the user experience less than ideal.

Recent triple-fold smartphones have solved this problem well. For example, the announced Tecno Phantom Ultimate 2 features a 10-inch ultra-large OLED screen, reaching the size of mainstream Android tablets, and adopts the classic 4:3 aspect ratio, making the screen better matched with video and gaming content.

3 More Durable

Besides being thick and heavy, fragility is another common complaint. Even a piece of paper can easily tear after repeated folding, let alone an expensive smartphone.

A key component in foldable phones is the hinge. To achieve tight closure and flat unfolding, the hinge must perform precise positioning, damping protection, and withstand repeated opening and closing, making it critical for a stable and reliable foldable product.

Previous foldable phones only had one hinge, while triple-fold phones require two, undoubtedly increasing the risk of damage. This requires manufacturers to create reliable hinges capable of withstanding hundreds of thousands of folds without failure. Currently, common technologies include Huawei's double-rotation water-drop hinge and Honor's titanium hinge, with one focusing on being seamless and the other on stability and durability.

02 Are consumers buying it?

With so many performance upgrades, the prices of foldable phones are also rising. Are consumers buying them?

Industry data suggests they are.

According to TrendForce, global foldable phone shipments reached 15.9 million units in 2023, a 25% year-on-year increase, accounting for about 1.4% of the total smartphone market. Shipments are estimated to be around 17.7 million units in 2024, an 11% increase, with the market share rising slightly to 1.5%. Growth is still below market expectations, but it is expected to exceed 2% in 2025.

In the second quarter of 2024, sales of foldable smartphones in China reached 2.62 million units, a year-on-year increase of 125% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11%. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of triple-digit year-on-year growth.

In terms of manufacturers, Huawei leads the Chinese foldable smartphone market, accounting for 35.2% of sales in the second quarter, ranking first. Vivo follows with 31.9%, and OPPO ranks third.

According to iResearch, users are increasingly gravitating toward top-tier brands when switching to foldable phones. Nearly half of high-end users with a future purchase budget of over 10,000 yuan are still willing to choose Huawei. Existing users have a high intention to continue using foldable phones, with over 90% stating they would choose a foldable device for their next phone.

According to EntGroup's public sentiment monitoring data, tech enthusiasts are mainly concerned with the thinness, screen quality, technical upgrades, and battery innovations of foldable phones. They pursue ultra-thin designs, large screens, and long battery life, and prefer content formats like technical analysis, industry news, and popular science.

03 Potential Tracks

The popularity of foldable screens has also driven gains in the secondary market. On September 2, A-share foldable screen concepts continued their upward trend from last week, with CosMX (hinges) hitting the limit up for 6 consecutive days, Guofeng New Material (polymer film) for 2 days, Zhidongli (cover plates) rising over 10% at one point, and Xingxing Technology (screens) also seeing significant gains.

Against the backdrop of global smartphone market saturation, foldable phones are currently in a stage of rapid growth and penetration from 1 to N. As the second half of the year is the peak season for consumer electronics, major phone manufacturers will densely release foldable phones, which is expected to further catalyze investment in the related supply chain.

Which tracks have more potential?

1 Flexible OLED

Flexible OLED is a core component of foldable phones. According to DISCIEN data, all new flexible OLED production lines in recent years have been in China, and domestic manufacturers are expected to occupy a major share of future flexible OLED supply.

The continuous development of OLED has, to a certain extent, promoted the development of upstream OLED materials, equipment, and related technologies, driving the localization of the OLED supporting industry. As the penetration rate of foldable phones increases, coupled with the shift of OLED panel production to China, the localization process of domestic OLED materials and equipment is expected to further improve.

Among related companies, Visionox and BOE are suppliers for the Honor Magic V2, BOE is a supplier for the OPPO Find N3 Flip, TCL cooperates with Xiaomi, and Samsung is a supplier for some other domestic brands.

2 Cover Plates

The cover plate is a key component of the foldable screen, needing to satisfy foldability, light transmission, and protective performance simultaneously.

Currently, the main materials for foldable phone cover plates are Colorless Polyimide (CPI) and Ultra-Thin Glass (UTG). Early plastic-based CPI became the flexible cover material for the first generation of foldable phones, and the CPI supply chain is now relatively mature with strong mass production capabilities. In 2020, Samsung introduced the UTG cover plate in the Galaxy Z Flip. UTG has technical advantages such as good light transmission, high hardness, and minimal creases, but mass production has been difficult due to low yields and high costs.

As domestic and international cover plate manufacturers gradually increase their technical reserves and supply chain layouts, the market size for UTG cover plates will continue to grow. CINNO Research expects that the domestic installation volume of UTG cover plates for foldable phones will grow to nearly 5 million units by 2025, with a CAGR of approximately 66% from 2022 to 2025. Related companies like Truly Opto-electronics, Kaisheng Technology, and Lens Technology are quite prominent.

3 Hinges

The hinge is a key component that helps the foldable phone screen unfold or fold. When two screens bend, the radii are different; the outer plane is longer than the inner plane, but they need to be the same length when closed. This requires the hinge to adjust its expansion and contraction based on the folding angle. The hinge must also be thin and light, accommodate over a hundred components, and ensure reliability.

Currently, MIM (Metal Injection Molding) is a key process, which allows for maintaining costs while increasing mold complexity, with process economics improving as product complexity increases.

On the other hand, the core iteration direction for foldable phones is thinning and weight reduction. Titanium alloy is light and strong, making it suitable for lightweight consumer electronics, and using titanium alloy for hinges is expected to become a new industry trend. Since titanium alloy is difficult to process, 3D printing technology can significantly reduce manufacturing difficulty, and thus, 3D printing is expected to further penetrate the consumer electronics industry.

Domestic related companies mainly include Dongmu, Jingyan Technology, and Tonglian Precision.