2025 Catering Boom Data: 39 RMB Per Capita Across 8 Million Stores — Who's Stealing the Traffic Amid Intensified Competition?

In 2025, China’s catering industry is undergoing profound transformation and restructuring. Behind the 39 RMB per capita spending lies a rational return of market demand; within the fierce competition of 8 million outlets, the rise of the chain rate to 22% is reshaping the industry landscape. The tea beverage sector is adjusting and optimizing its structure, while the coffee track expands vigorously. Across all subcategories, new growth points are being explored in the heat of competition. Facing a complex and ever-changing market, what trends are shaping the industry? And what opportunities and challenges lie ahead?

1. Industry Status Analysis

Market Size and Growth Trends

In 2024, China’s catering market grew steadily. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, total national catering revenue exceeded 5.5 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%.

Over the past two years, the growth rate of catering revenue has consistently outpaced that of total retail sales of consumer goods and goods retail. However, by September 2024, catering growth slowed to 3.1%, falling below total retail sales (3.2%) and goods retail (3.3%), signaling an emerging “slow growth crisis.”

(Source: canyin88.com)

Store Numbers and Chain Rate

From 2020 to 2024, China’s catering chain rate jumped from 15% to 22%. According to Qichacha, by March 2025 there were 16.89 million catering-related enterprises nationwide, with nearly 8 million outlets in total. Competition is fierce. The chain rate is expected to reach ~24% in 2025, with chain expansion accelerating.

(Source: KPMG China)

Chain operations are becoming a key driver of high-quality development. Large-scale catering companies above the designated size reached revenues of 1.5 trillion RMB in 2024, accounting for 27.5% of total catering income—the highest in a decade.

(Source: Nestlé x World Federation of Chinese Catering Industry x Euromonitor International)

Changes in Per Capita Spending

After the pandemic and economic pressure, consumers are more rational, cutting back on “face consumption” and focusing on cost-effectiveness. More restaurants launched ultra-low-price group deals. Nationwide per capita catering spending fell to 39.8 RMB in 2024, down 6.6% year-on-year. Chinese formal dining has shown a steady annual decline since 2021, with 2024 seeing the steepest drop (-2.9%).

(Source: canyin88.com)

2. Consumer Demand Insights

Coexistence of Downscaling and Upgrading

Consumption has shifted from premium pursuit to practicality, from high-end venues to discount channels, from diversity to essential needs. Consumers are less brand-obsessed, but value novelty, experiential dining, and emotional satisfaction.

(Source: canyin88.com)

Attitudes Toward Brands

Only 20.6% of consumers prefer big, well-known brands; 27.4% like niche or unique ones; 23.8% see brands as quality assurance but don’t actively seek them; 27.7% don’t care about brands at all, focusing only on product quality.

The trend is driven by better-educated, more informed consumers with wider choices thanks to digital transparency.

(Source: canyin88.com)

Preferences for New Restaurants

In 2024, each catering brand launched an average of 3.3 new products monthly (vs. 3.1 in 2023). 29.6% of consumers said they almost always try new restaurants if prices are right; 35.8% split between old and new; 32.2% mostly stick to familiar places but occasionally try new ones; only 2.4% rarely try new outlets.

(Source: canyin88.com)

3. Operational Challenges and Strategies

Changing Cost Structures

Ingredients: ~40% and rising; labor: 25% but declining via flexible staffing/digital tools; rent: 20% and falling with new site strategies; marketing: 8% and rising due to competition; R&D: 5% and rising with personalized demand.

(Source: canyin88.com)

Large players with high sunk costs are most pressured by price-cutting and ecological shifts, struggling to adapt quickly. Many fall into “structural inertia.”

(Source: canyin88.com)

Cost Reduction & Efficiency Strategies

1. Open smaller stores to cut costs.

2. Use sub-brands/differentiated channels to capture downgraded consumers.

3. Employ flexible staffing and digital tools.

4. Choose low-rent sites and rely on online marketing.

5. Lower upfront investment for steady growth.

(Source: canyin88.com)

4. Category Development Analysis

Chinese-Style Dining

As of April 2025, the total number of Chinese rice fast-food outlets nationwide had reached 880,000. Among these, East China accounted for as much as 37.8% of stores, while the Southwest, Northeast, and South China regions each held more than 10% of the share. In terms of growth, the number of rice fast-food outlets expanded most rapidly in Northwest, Northeast, and North China, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.3%, 6.2%, and 5.3% respectively.

From the perspective of scale, brands operating 50 or fewer outlets represented 76.8% of the market, while those with 51–100 stores and 101–500 stores also had a significant presence, accounting for 10.1% and 11.4% respectively.

(Source: canyin88.com)

Brands Entering the “Thin-Margin Era”: Balancing Efficiency and Authentic Flavor Through “Smart + Fresh Cooking”. In recent years, amid growing consumer resistance to pre-prepared meals, demand for freshness, made-to-order cooking, and authentic “wok hei” (the flavor of stir-fry) has steadily risen. Data shows that since 2024, search indices for keywords like “freshly made” and “stir-fried” on Douyin have climbed at varying rates. Against this backdrop, niche rice fast-food categories—such as Jiangxi stir-fry, stir-fried rice bowls with toppings, new-style wooden bucket rice, Hunan-style stir-fry, and chili pork rice bowls—have all gained significant attention.

Hotpot

Between 2024 and 2025, the total number of hotpot outlets nationwide stabilized above 500,000, while market size continued to grow—reaching 617.5 billion RMB in 2024 and projected to hit 650 billion RMB in 2025.

In terms of outlet numbers, hotpot restaurants hovered around 500,000 between 2023 and Q1 2025. The number peaked at 535,500 in Q3 2024 before gradually declining to 504,800 in Q1 2025. These figures indicate a pattern of fluctuation and adjustment, with the sector entering a stage of stock competition and intensifying rivalry.

Driven by shifts in the economic environment and increasingly cautious consumer attitudes, per capita hotpot spending has shown a continuous decline, with value-for-money consumption becoming mainstream. Average spending fell to 77.4 RMB per person, down 8.1% year-on-year, though niche segments remain active.

(Source: canyin88.com)

Snacks and Fast Food

Thanks to rigid demand and a broad consumer base, the snack and fast-food sector has remained a favorite among catering entrepreneurs in recent years. Qichacha data shows that 327,000 snack and fast-food enterprises were newly registered between January and December 2024.

With more entrants, the sector continues to expand. Estimates from the Hongcan Industry Research Institute suggest that the snack and fast-food market exceeded 1 trillion RMB in 2024, growing 7.5% year-on-year—one of the fastest growth rates among catering sub-sectors. By 2025, the market size is expected to reach 1.08 trillion RMB.

(Source: canyin88.com)

Essential categories dominate: rice fast food, noodle shops, and rice noodles rank top three. The snack and fast-food sector includes a wide variety of subcategories, but the proportion of outlets in each remains relatively stable. Specifically, the strongest essential categories—rice fast food, noodle restaurants, and rice noodles (including rice vermicelli)—occupied the top three spots, with shares of 26.28%, 18.47%, and 9.44% respectively.

Western fast food, combining both leisure and essential attributes, ranked fourth at 9.05%. Other subcategories, such as braised/deli meats, spicy hotpot (málàtàng/“mào cài”), dumplings/wontons, buns, pancakes, and regional snacks, also hold notable market shares.

(Source: canyin88.com)

Tea and Coffee Beverages

In recent years, with the maturation of upstream supply chains, the enhanced innovation capacity of brands, and shifts in consumer behavior downstream, China’s freshly prepared beverage market has experienced rapid growth. In 2024, the tea beverage market reached 175.7 billion RMB, growing 8.2%.

(Source: GeoQ)

In Q1 2025, GeoQ Data recorded 115 chain tea brands: approximately 6,346 store openings and 4,182 closures, for an overall open-to-close ratio of 1.52. Compared with 1.73 in Q1 2024, this ratio declined, while closures rose, reflecting an increasingly fierce “survival of the fittest.” Despite the heightened competition and elimination process, the overall scale of the new-style tea beverage sector continues to expand.

(Source: GeoQ)

5. Supply Chain Trends

Impact of Downstream Chains

As downstream chains scale up, upstream specialization rises. Building tailored sales channels for chain catering is key.

(Source: canyin88.com)

Role in Innovation

True innovation lies in leading demand, not just meeting it. Supply chain firms, with cross-category, cross-region reach, leverage market data and consumer insights to drive product innovation.

(Source: canyin88.com)

6. Future Opportunities

“Luxury-to-Mass” Transformation

Consumers want value-for-money yet won’t sacrifice quality. Meanwhile, upstream upgrades lower procurement costs for premium ingredients. Streamlined processes and optimized supply chains can make once-luxury dining accessible.

(Source: canyin88.com)

Elderly Catering & Community Dining

By 2024, 22% of China’s population was aged 60+. With shrinking families and rising employment, elderly nutrition and convenience needs are growing. Community canteens offering low-salt, soft-textured dishes can fill this gap.

(Source: canyin88.com)

In 2025, China’s catering industry is being reshaped by accelerating chain expansion, rational consumption, and category iteration. From the 22% chain rate to the reshuffling of tea and coffee, the data reveals both challenges and opportunities.

Supply chain upgrades, digital transformation, and new consumption scenarios will be decisive. Whether through large-scale expansion or refined operations, only those who innovate and adapt will survive in the era of stock competition.